In the first half of 2026, the Canadian immigration market moved faster than ever before. In particular, Express Entry continued to issue large-scale invitations from the start of the year, raising expectations among many applicants. Under the Canadian Experience Class (CEC), invitations were issued to thousands of candidates in quick succession, and category-based selection—including for French-speaking, healthcare, and skilled trades—also proceeded actively. Based on the atmosphere at the start of the year, there were many predictions that this year would offer far more opportunities for permanent residency than last year.
However, now that we’ve entered July, the market sentiment has shifted markedly. The number of invitations has dropped noticeably, and draw schedules are no longer proceeding as regularly as they did in the past. Above all, the decline in CRS scores that many applicants had anticipated is actually moving in the opposite direction. While Express Entry hasn’t come to a halt, it’s clear that the likelihood of it operating at the same pace as in the first half of the year has become very low.
This change is not simply due to a decrease in the number of invitations. The main reason is that a significant number of invitations were already issued during the first half of this year. As of early July this year, IRCC had issued Invitations to Apply (ITAs) for permanent residency to approximately 97,000 people. Considering that approximately 114,000 ITAs were issued throughout all of 2025, this means that—even with more than five months remaining until the end of the year—the number of invitations issued has already approached last year’s total. In particular, the first quarter of this year saw an aggressive pace, with an average of more than 18,000 people invited each month. However, starting in April, the number of invitations began to drop by nearly half, and recently, draws have mostly been limited to between 2,000 and 4,000 people.
The government’s policy direction has played a major role in this shift in momentum between the first and second halves of the year. In recent years, the Canadian government has prioritized converting temporary residents who are already studying or working in Canada into permanent residents, rather than attracting large numbers of new immigrants from abroad. This “In-Canada Focus” policy was clearly reflected in the large-scale CEC invitations issued in the first half of this year. In fact, the number of CEC invitations this year has already exceeded 43,000, far surpassing last year’s total CEC invitations. Considering the time remaining until the end of the year, the government’s need to continue holding large-scale CEC draws like those in the first half has significantly diminished.
Another key point to note is the overhaul of the Express Entry system, expected to take place late this year or early next year. The Canadian government is currently moving forward with plans to consolidate the existing Federal Skilled Worker (FSW), Canadian Experience Class (CEC), and Federal Skilled Trades (FST) programs into a single, integrated program. Although the final implementation schedule has not yet been announced, there are predictions that draws will likely be temporarily suspended for a certain period once the system overhaul is implemented. In fact, whenever major system changes have taken place, IRCC has adjusted its processing pace to allow for internal system checks and updates. Consequently, there is growing support for the interpretation that the aggressive issuance of invitations earlier this year was not merely intended to expand access to permanent residency, but was a strategic move to prepare in advance for any potential gaps that may arise during the upcoming system overhaul.
The change that applicants have felt most acutely recently is, of course, the CRS score. As recently as early this year, CEC draws were conducted on a scale of 8,000 to 6,000 candidates, with cut-off scores ranging from 507 to 511 points. However, the situation changed rapidly once the draw size shrunk to around 2,000 candidates. The recent CEC cutoff score has risen to between 515 and 518 points, making the competition for high scores even more intense. The reason is simple: there are still a large number of high-scoring candidates with 500 points or more remaining in the Express Entry pool. Even if the top 2,000 candidates are selected through the draw, new candidates continue to enter the pool, and the scores of existing applicants steadily rise. Ultimately, this has created a structure where the number of top-tier candidates does not easily decrease, leaving the cut-off score with no choice but to remain high. While many applicants hope that “if they wait a little longer, the score might go back down,” it seems unlikely that the CEC cut-off score will drop significantly for the time being if the current draw size is maintained.
On the other hand, there are categories that are likely to continue operating stably. A prime example is the French-language category. The Canadian government has a clear policy goal of expanding the French-speaking population in regions outside Quebec, and to this end, it continues to hold French-language-based Express Entry draws. Tens of thousands of invitations have already been issued this year, and although the cut-off score has risen slightly, selections are still being made at a level nearly 100 points lower than that of the general CEC. This is why it is still considered one of the most realistic strategies for obtaining permanent residency for applicants with French language proficiency.
On the other hand, some categories—such as STEM, education, transportation, and research—have not held a single draw so far this year. As the government continues to announce these categories without actually conducting selections, waiting exclusively for these occupations is becoming an increasingly risky strategy. For applicants in these fields, preparing for Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs) or other eligible categories alongside their Express Entry application is a much more realistic approach. Ultimately, the Express Entry market in the second half of this year is highly likely to be completely different from that of the first half.
Large-scale CEC draws have already largely concluded, and going forward, selective invitations focused on high-demand fields are expected to follow. Rather than the biweekly schedule seen in the past, the draw schedule is likely to continue in a pattern where there is a period of inactivity followed by multiple draws conducted within a few days. Furthermore, if systemic reforms are implemented, we cannot rule out the possibility that draws themselves may be temporarily suspended for a certain period.
In times like these, preparation—not waiting—is what matters most. Rather than simply hoping for the cut-off score to drop, you need a strategy that involves improving your English scores, preparing for French, re-evaluating which categories you may qualify for, and reviewing provincial immigration programs as well. Canadian immigration is rapidly shifting from an era of simply selecting applicants with high scores to one of screening talent that meets the government’s needs. If the first half of 2026 was a “race against time,” the second half is likely to become a “strategic battle.” In this changing landscape, those who seize opportunities will not be those who simply wait, but rather those who are the first to begin preparing in response to these changes.
In the first half of 2026, the Canadian immigration market moved faster than ever before. In particular, Express Entry continued to issue large-scale invitations from the start of the year, raising expectations among many applicants. Under the Canadian Experience Class (CEC), invitations were issued to thousands of candidates in quick succession, and category-based selection—including for French-speaking, healthcare, and skilled trades—also proceeded actively. Based on the atmosphere at the start of the year, there were many predictions that this year would offer far more opportunities for permanent residency than last year.
However, now that we’ve entered July, the market sentiment has shifted markedly. The number of invitations has dropped noticeably, and draw schedules are no longer proceeding as regularly as they did in the past. Above all, the decline in CRS scores that many applicants had anticipated is actually moving in the opposite direction. While Express Entry hasn’t come to a halt, it’s clear that the likelihood of it operating at the same pace as in the first half of the year has become very low.
This change is not simply due to a decrease in the number of invitations. The main reason is that a significant number of invitations were already issued during the first half of this year. As of early July this year, IRCC had issued Invitations to Apply (ITAs) for permanent residency to approximately 97,000 people. Considering that approximately 114,000 ITAs were issued throughout all of 2025, this means that—even with more than five months remaining until the end of the year—the number of invitations issued has already approached last year’s total. In particular, the first quarter of this year saw an aggressive pace, with an average of more than 18,000 people invited each month. However, starting in April, the number of invitations began to drop by nearly half, and recently, draws have mostly been limited to between 2,000 and 4,000 people.
The government’s policy direction has played a major role in this shift in momentum between the first and second halves of the year. In recent years, the Canadian government has prioritized converting temporary residents who are already studying or working in Canada into permanent residents, rather than attracting large numbers of new immigrants from abroad. This “In-Canada Focus” policy was clearly reflected in the large-scale CEC invitations issued in the first half of this year. In fact, the number of CEC invitations this year has already exceeded 43,000, far surpassing last year’s total CEC invitations. Considering the time remaining until the end of the year, the government’s need to continue holding large-scale CEC draws like those in the first half has significantly diminished.
Another key point to note is the overhaul of the Express Entry system, expected to take place late this year or early next year. The Canadian government is currently moving forward with plans to consolidate the existing Federal Skilled Worker (FSW), Canadian Experience Class (CEC), and Federal Skilled Trades (FST) programs into a single, integrated program. Although the final implementation schedule has not yet been announced, there are predictions that draws will likely be temporarily suspended for a certain period once the system overhaul is implemented. In fact, whenever major system changes have taken place, IRCC has adjusted its processing pace to allow for internal system checks and updates. Consequently, there is growing support for the interpretation that the aggressive issuance of invitations earlier this year was not merely intended to expand access to permanent residency, but was a strategic move to prepare in advance for any potential gaps that may arise during the upcoming system overhaul.
The change that applicants have felt most acutely recently is, of course, the CRS score. As recently as early this year, CEC draws were conducted on a scale of 8,000 to 6,000 candidates, with cut-off scores ranging from 507 to 511 points. However, the situation changed rapidly once the draw size shrunk to around 2,000 candidates. The recent CEC cutoff score has risen to between 515 and 518 points, making the competition for high scores even more intense. The reason is simple: there are still a large number of high-scoring candidates with 500 points or more remaining in the Express Entry pool. Even if the top 2,000 candidates are selected through the draw, new candidates continue to enter the pool, and the scores of existing applicants steadily rise. Ultimately, this has created a structure where the number of top-tier candidates does not easily decrease, leaving the cut-off score with no choice but to remain high. While many applicants hope that “if they wait a little longer, the score might go back down,” it seems unlikely that the CEC cut-off score will drop significantly for the time being if the current draw size is maintained.
On the other hand, there are categories that are likely to continue operating stably. A prime example is the French-language category. The Canadian government has a clear policy goal of expanding the French-speaking population in regions outside Quebec, and to this end, it continues to hold French-language-based Express Entry draws. Tens of thousands of invitations have already been issued this year, and although the cut-off score has risen slightly, selections are still being made at a level nearly 100 points lower than that of the general CEC. This is why it is still considered one of the most realistic strategies for obtaining permanent residency for applicants with French language proficiency.
On the other hand, some categories—such as STEM, education, transportation, and research—have not held a single draw so far this year. As the government continues to announce these categories without actually conducting selections, waiting exclusively for these occupations is becoming an increasingly risky strategy. For applicants in these fields, preparing for Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs) or other eligible categories alongside their Express Entry application is a much more realistic approach. Ultimately, the Express Entry market in the second half of this year is highly likely to be completely different from that of the first half.
Large-scale CEC draws have already largely concluded, and going forward, selective invitations focused on high-demand fields are expected to follow. Rather than the biweekly schedule seen in the past, the draw schedule is likely to continue in a pattern where there is a period of inactivity followed by multiple draws conducted within a few days. Furthermore, if systemic reforms are implemented, we cannot rule out the possibility that draws themselves may be temporarily suspended for a certain period.
In times like these, preparation—not waiting—is what matters most. Rather than simply hoping for the cut-off score to drop, you need a strategy that involves improving your English scores, preparing for French, re-evaluating which categories you may qualify for, and reviewing provincial immigration programs as well. Canadian immigration is rapidly shifting from an era of simply selecting applicants with high scores to one of screening talent that meets the government’s needs. If the first half of 2026 was a “race against time,” the second half is likely to become a “strategic battle.” In this changing landscape, those who seize opportunities will not be those who simply wait, but rather those who are the first to begin preparing in response to these changes.